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Zone J real-time premiums narrowed significantly through April as offshore wind procured during off-peak hours pushed DA prices lower ahead of the evening ramp. The spread between 7–9 AM RT and DA settled at a multi-year low for the month. What this means for BESS thesis assumptions heading into summer peak season.
Forward Capacity Auction 19 cleared at a meaningful premium to recent years, driven by retirement of aging gas peakers and delayed entry of offshore wind capacity. We walk through the zonal breakdown, import capability limits, and the near-term implications for development economics in ME, NH, and VT.
Year-to-date BESS energy arbitrage revenue in LZ_West continues to track well below 2025 Ascend projections. Fleet capacity growth from 3 GW to over 12 GW has compressed spreads structurally. We quantify the gap and assess whether the capacity price tightening thesis can rescue the return profile.
PJM's Base Residual Auction has now been delayed multiple times, creating a prolonged period of capacity price uncertainty for developers and investors in the mid-Atlantic. We examine the regulatory timeline, FERC's posture, and which project types are most exposed.